Abstract

This dissertation explores the role of exogenous shocks such as economic shocks and natural disasters in producing political unrest in the form of anti-government protests and ethnic riots. It is integrated by three articles, each covering a different topic. The first article argues that economic shocks play a crucial role in protest mobilization in rentier states conditional on weaker repressive capacity or higher taxation. Empirically, it conducts a cross-national study of high resource-dependent states in the period of 1995-2014. The second article contends that there is a variation in the degree to which a country's regions are exposed to economic shocks. Higher regional exposure to economic shocks is argued to increase the likelihood of regional anti-government protests in competitive autocracies. The argument is tested in a subnational analysis of Russia using an original dataset of regional anti-government protest and regional economic data in the period of 2007-2015. The third article develops a theory of natural disasters and ethnic riots. It argues that climate-induced meteorological disasters increase the chances of ethnic riots because of declined state capacity that creates uncertainty about enforcement of existing ethnic contracts. The feelings of uncertainty result in a strong group categorization, stereotyping, and polarization. The argument is tested in a subnational study of Hindu-Muslim riots in Indian states in the period of 1951-2015. The results of the studies in this dissertation offer three key findings: (1) higher resource rents lower protest likelihood in autocratic rentier states with higher repressive capacity; (2) regional unemployment is a strong predictor of anti-government protest; (3) natural disasters in the form of precipitation and temperature anomalies increase the chances of ethnic riots. The findings suggest a conclusion that exogenous shocks are important predictors of anti-government protests and ethnic riots.

Graduation Date

2019

Semester

Spring

Advisor

Tezcur, Gunes Murat

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

College

College of Sciences

Department

School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs

Degree Program

Security Studies

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

CFE0007510

URL

http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0007510

Language

English

Release Date

5-15-2019

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access)

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