Keywords

Input output analysis, Orlando, Economic conditions, Tourism in Florida, Estimation accuracy

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to explore the accuracy of the Input-Output model and its derivative, the Occupation-Based model in investigating the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on the tourism-related industries and the local economy in the Metro Orlando Area, Florida. The 2007-2008 total visitor expenditure change is taken as an initial shock from the economic crisis on the region's tourism-related industries, and the total impacts are measured in terms of industry output (sales), employment and annual occupational wage. The estimation results are compared with the actual data to verify the accuracy of the modeling results. Paired-sample T tests are performed to determine whether the difference between the actual and estimated results are statistically significant or not. The findings suggest that the Input-Output model tends to overestimate the negative effects from the 2007 economic crisis in terms of output and employment, especially on the tourism-related industries. While the estimation results indicate the 2007 economic crisis greatly damaged the local tourism-related industries between 2007 and 2008, the actual data show that most of these industries experienced output and employment growth in that one year period. Moreover, the study findings also indicate that the Occupation-Based model has the tendency of overestimating the annual wage loss, especially for the occupations which take up large employment ratio in an industry. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some explorative efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Notes

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Graduation Date

2011

Semester

Spring

Advisor

Hara, Tadayuki

Degree

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

Rosen College of Hospitality Management

Degree Program

Tourism Hospitality Management

Format

application/pdf

Identifier

CFE0003582

URL

http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0003582

Language

English

Release Date

May 2011

Length of Campus-only Access

None

Access Status

Masters Thesis (Open Access)

Location

Rosen College of Hospitality Management

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