Trouble in Paradise: Tracking Tropicalization on Mosquito Lagoon Oyster Reefs

Authors

• Gabriel T. Silva, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Maya Kurian, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Katherine Manzelli, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Kye Pollard, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Johanne Hunt, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Avarey Johnson, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Kiara Cuevas-Gutierrez, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Giavanna Harrington, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Giles Cherkaoui, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Anya Spara, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Tai Powell, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Jacob McLean, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Ryan Chin, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Kriztian Milanes, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Nicholas Groves, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Michael Theobald, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Justin Moya, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Melissa Vance, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Logan Chapman, University of Central FloridaFollow
• Jordyn Delikat, University of Central FloridaFollow

Streaming Media

Files

Course Code

BSC

Course Number

4312C

Faculty/Instructor

Dr. Linda Walters

Faculty/Instructor Email

linda.walters@ucf.edu

About the Author

The Advanced Marine Biology - Research Intensive class is composed of 20 students interested in research within the fields of coastal and marine biology. The semester-long course includes the completion of two projects focused on oysters and mangroves within the Indian River Lagoon, and gives students both laboratory and field experience in marine biology research. We would like to acknowledge our professor, Dr. Linda Walters, GTA Katherine Harris, & Dr. Paul Sacks for all their guidance and assistance throughout the length of this course and project.

Abstract, Summary, or Creative Statement

Climate change has caused average temperatures across the globe to increase and the frequency of freezing events in temperate climates to decrease, leading to tropical species moving polewards. This process, known as tropicalization, has been documented on the eastern coast of Florida as the tropical red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) encroaches into temperate communities once defined by the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). Mosquito Lagoon, located within the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) system, is one community that has experienced an increase of 198% in mangrove coverage on intertidal oyster reefs between 1984 and 2017. Although the frequency of freezes has decreased in recent years due to increased global temperatures, Mosquito Lagoon experienced temperatures ≤ -4°C (the lowest threshold for R. mangle survivability) on 1 February 2026, potentially impacting mangrove population dynamics on these oyster reefs. Our research is part of an ongoing long-term project to monitor mangrove density, distribution, size, herbivory, and the rate of change of these characteristics compared to previous years. This study has been conducted annually each spring since 2023, collecting data across the same 10 reefs within Mosquito Lagoon. Previous results documented a 60% increase in mangrove stand coverage between March 2023 and 2024, following a 32% increase from 2024 to 2025. The historic annual rate of mangrove increase on oyster reefs was 6%, reported from 1984 to 2017. As climate change raises global temperatures, the importance of predicting future ecosystem shifts will grow. By understanding interactions between these foundational species, resource managers will be better equipped to protect the futures of these vital ecosystems.

Keywords

mangroves;oyster reefs;tropicalization;climatechange;estuary;freeze

Recommended Citation

Silva, Gabriel T.; Kurian, Maya; Manzelli, Katherine; Pollard, Kye; Hunt, Johanne; Johnson, Avarey; Cuevas-Gutierrez, Kiara; Harrington, Giavanna; Cherkaoui, Giles; Spara, Anya; Powell, Tai; McLean, Jacob; Chin, Ryan; Milanes, Kriztian; Groves, Nicholas; Theobald, Michael; Moya, Justin; Vance, Melissa; Chapman, Logan; and Delikat, Jordyn, "Trouble in Paradise: Tracking Tropicalization on Mosquito Lagoon Oyster Reefs" (2026). High Impact Practices Student Showcase Spring 2026. 54.
https://stars.library.ucf.edu/hip-2026spring/54